I don’t want to rain on the glorious College Football Playoff parade, but what in the world are we doing with Indiana?
The Hoosiers are a fantastic story, a rare underdog in a college football world full of the predictable. But for the love of all things Knight, this team has no business in the Top 12 of the CFP ― much less the top five.
But there’s an underlying problem: because Indiana is unbeaten while playing a ridiculously easy schedule, it continues to climb in the poll. You know, the old school poll ideals of ‘they’ve haven’t lost, they must be good.’
So when Indiana invariably gets blown out by Ohio State on Nov. 23, the Hoosiers aren’t dropping from No. 5 in the nation to out of the poll. See the problem now?
How many other teams in college football would be unbeaten playing a schedule of lower tier Big Ten teams, and a non-conference schedule of Florida International, Western Illinois and Charlotte? Nothing screams cakewalk quite like a 40-53 opponent record, with Nebraska (5-4) holding down the best record of the bunch.
As long as the Hoosiers aren’t blown out by Ohio State, they’re in the CFP. With a schedule that won’t get much better with Ohio State and the worst team in the Big Ten (Purdue) remaining.
A look at three overvalued and three undervalued teams in Week 2 of the College Football Playoff rankings.
UP AND DOWN: Army, Georgia lead CFP ranking winners and losers
Overvalued
Penn State
Last week: No. 6.
This week: No. 4.
Best win: 21-7, vs. Illinois
Worst loss: 20-13, vs. Ohio State
Opponent record: 42-40.
The skinny: Want to see Indiana’s doppelganger? Check out Penn State. Who exactly have the Lions beaten? If you say Illinois, you immediately lose your college football card.
Texas
Last week: No. 5.
This week: No. 3.
Best win: 27-24, at Vanderbilt.
Worst loss: 30-15, vs. Georgia.
Opponent record: 44-41.
The skinny: The ultimate eye test team. The Longhorns have done nothing to deserve a top-three ranking, but sure have looked good doing it. Imagine living in Fiji for a year, with no connection to the outside world.
You come back, and are told Texas lost by 15 at home to Georgia, and beat Vanderbilt by three on the road — and that’s the extent of the CFP resume. Utterly ridiculous.
Notre Dame
Last week: No. 10.
This week: No. 8.
Best win: 23-13, at Texas A&M.
Worst Loss: 16-14, vs. Northern Illinois.
Opponent record: 40-43.
The skinny: For whatever reason (here’s a hint: television draw), the season-opening win at Texas A&M holds significantly more weight than the home loss to Northern Illinois. The committee also is impressed by wins over Louisville and Navy. I’m not kidding, Navy.
Much like Indiana, the Irish may be too high to bounce out of the final poll should something strange happen in the season final at rival Southern California.
Undervalued
Mississippi
Last week: No. 16.
This week: No. 11.
Best win: 28-10, vs. Georgia.
Worst loss: 20-17, vs. Kentucky.
Opponent record: 47-45.
The skinny: Beat the Boogeyman, move up five lousy spots. After last week’s 18-point win over Georgia – the same team that beat Texas by 15 on the road – maybe, just maybe, the committee should’ve reassessed the two Ole Miss losses.
You know, the fourth-down prayer throws from Kentucky and LSU that have kept the Rebels from an unbeaten season. This Ole Miss team is Exhibit A for what the poll should be: if we’re using the eye test (which we clearly are), no one looks better right now than the Rebels.
Alabama
Last week: No. 11.
This week: No. 10.
Best win: 42-13, at LSU
Worst loss: 40-35, at Vanderbilt
Opponent record: 56-26.
The skinny: Look at the opponent record. It’s not a misprint. Now look at the group ahead of Alabama, and how many have the resume of the Tide? Here’s a better thought: what’s Indiana’s record if it plays Alabama’s schedule?
You could make a healthy argument Indiana would be – best case scenario – 1-5 in those SEC games. And I’m not too comfortable giving the Hoosiers a win at Vanderbilt.
SMU
Last week: No. 13.
This week: No. 14.
Best win: 48-25, vs. Pittsburgh.
Worst loss: 18-16, vs. Brigham Young.
Opponent record: 45-42.
The skinny: Still trying to figure out why Notre Dame is ranked ahead of SMU. The win over Pitt is just as impressive as the Irish win over Texas A&M (the Aggies are one of a handful of teams where the committee is dead-on accurate), and the loss is to unbeaten BYU.
It’s not a stretch to say SMU will win the ACC, get a first-round bye and be a gigantic headache for the team that advances from the first round.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
