One thing that’s obvious about Florida and Houston heading into the national championship game: Neither team is going to quit.
Florida was down eight at halftime of the national semifinals against Auburn before flipping momentum with a quick 11-0 run early in the second half. After being battered by the Tigers’ frontcourt, the Gators essentially shut down Auburn senior Johni Broome in the second half, holding the All-America forward to just 3 points on 1 of 4 shooting from the field.
Later on Saturday night, Houston trailed Duke by 14 points with roughly eight minutes remaining in the second half and by nine with 2:15 to play. But a crucial takeaway and clutch shooting from 3-point range helped the Cougars pull off the second-largest second-half comeback in Final Four history and deal the Blue Devils “the most heartbreaking loss,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said.
“We just stay together in those moments,” said senior Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr., who scored 34 points in the win. “I can’t speak for Houston’s team, what they got going on in the locker room. They seem like a very together team also. It should be a good 40-minute fight.”
The similarities continue. Both teams are highly effective from 3-point range. Both are excellent at defending the perimeter. Both run guard-oriented offensive schemes but can score in the paint.
Yet the differences between Florida and Houston will be on display from the opening seconds on Monday night.
There is no greater contrast than the tempo and flow the Gators and Cougars will look to establish early in the first half. While several other factors loom large, which team can dictate the pace of play will be the deciding issue in determining the national championship.
Florida will look to race, especially in transition. The Gators rank second nationally and first among Power Five schools in fastbreak points per game. They scored just twice on the break against Auburn, however, potentially giving Houston a blueprint for the championship game.
Houston is comfortable slowing things down to a crawl. The Cougars rank 360th out of 365 Division I teams in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.com, which measures a team’s possessions per 40 minutes adjusted for opponent. That Houston didn’t deviate from this script and patiently chipped away at the Blue Devils’ lead in the second half speaks to the program’s culture, coach Kelvin Sampson said.
“We’ve kind of done it our way,” said Sampson. “It’s worked out pretty good.”
This battle to set the pace emphasizes the broader push and pull between Florida’s offense and Houston’s defense. The Gators rank third nationally in scoring and have been held under 70 points just once. Florida is averaging 84.4 points per game in tournament play. Houston leads the nation in giving up only 58.5 points per game and was one of only three teams this season to hold Duke under 70 points.
“They’re the best defensive team in America,” Golden said. “They have just a great identity as a program of just being both physically and mentally tough.”
A good comparison for Monday night’s matchup may be how Florida performed in three matchups against SEC rival Tennessee. The Gators averaged 67.7 points per game in taking two of three from the Volunteers, the last in the SEC championship game. But in the one loss, the Volunteers held the Gators to just 44 points on 13 of 53 shooting (24.5%), including 4 of 27 (14.8%) from deep.
While that loss is an outlier, evaluating how Florida matched up with Tennessee and how the Cougars handed the Volunteers a 69-50 victory in the Elite Eight will give his team “a way to attack (Houston) a little bit,” Golden said.
Meanwhile, Houston can tap into that Elite Eight win and a pair of non-conference setbacks against SEC teams that make up half of the Cougars’ defeats on the year. Houston lost 74-69 at home to Auburn on Nov. 9 and then lost 85-80 in overtime to Alabama on Nov. 26 in the opener of the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas.
Two factors will help shape the push and pull between Florida’s offense and Houston’s defense. One is turnovers, a common thread linking the Gators’ regular-season losses to Tennessee, Missouri and Kentucky. Overall, Florida ranks 118th nationally in averaging 11.1 turnovers per game and 141st in turnover margin.
But few teams are better than Houston at limiting giveaways. The Cougars rank third in the country with nine turnovers per game and 10th in turnover margin. They forced two huge turnovers in final 1:39 against Duke, including one that led to a second-chance dunk to trim the score to 67-66 with 25 seconds to play.
“I feel like when you get offensive rebounds, second-chance points, points off turnovers, I feel like that can get you back in the flow of the game if you’re having a bad shooting night,” said senior Houston forward J’wan Roberts.
The second factor is how each team fares from 3-point range. The Gators are higher-volume shooters: Florida has attempted 20 shots from behind the arc in every game but one, putting up 19 from deep in a win against Connecticut in the second round. Defensively, Florida’s opponents have made 29.5% of attempts from deep, ranking eighth nationally.
The Cougars will pick their spots as part of a more methodical approach. Houston averages 20.6 attempts per game, ranking 265th nationally, but makes them count. The Cougars top Division I in making 39.9% from 3-point range and connected on 10 of 22 attempts against Duke, including 5 of 11 in the second half.
Senior guard L.J. Cryer made three of four attempts from deep in the second half and six of nine overall, part of his team-high 26 points. His play on the perimeter is matched by Clayton, who became the first player since Larry Bird in 1979 to score 30 or more points in the Elite Eight and the national semifinals.
Keeping Clayton in check will be one of Houston’s top priorities. More susceptible defensively in the paint, the Cougars have consistently locked down on opposing backcourts. Arizona State senior Alston Mason’s 26 points in an 80-65 loss on Feb. 18 are the most Houston has allowed to a guard this season.
But individual matchups take a back seat to the more general way Florida and Houston will look to attack Monday night. The Gators want to play the game on their terms; so do the Cougars. The winner will be the team that forces the other into an uncomfortably different style.
“I think it’s going to be a contrasting battle that way,” said Golden. “Hopefully we can get the game up and down a little bit. They’re going to impose their will as they’ve done on everybody this year. We’re a pretty tough team also.”
