The game’s outcome could serve as a tiebreaker for the College Football Playoff selection committee when comparing the SEC and Big Ten.
Both coaches, Brent Venables of Oklahoma and Sherrone Moore of Michigan, face pressure to secure a significant win.
The matchup features a quarterback battle between Oklahoma’s John Mateer and Michigan’s freshman Bryce Underwood.
The last and only meeting between Oklahoma and Michigan had a national championship on the line, though that wasn’t known until right before kickoff.
Not long before the start of the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day 1976, Oklahoma learned that UCLA – as a two-touchdown underdog – had polished off top-ranked Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Combined with a Texas A&M loss to Southern California at the Liberty Bowl in late December, the Sooners suddenly had a path to back-to-back championships under coach Barry Switzer.
Oklahoma beat Michigan 14-6 behind 282 rushing yards and a combined 23 tackles by brothers Lee Roy and Dewey Selmon.
Almost a half-century later, the Sooners and Wolverines meet on Saturday with lower national stakes — you can’t win a championship in September, though you can lose your shot at one. But the fallout from the game in Norman has the potential to shape the College Football Playoff, especially in determining which and how many teams the Big Ten and SEC place in the postseason field.
“It’s going to be a really cool matchup,” said Oklahoma coach Brent Venables. ‘Two incredible programs that represent all the excellence in college football.”
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With many top playoff contenders taking on Group of Five or Championship Subdivision competition, the matchup will have the nation’s attention as the only ranked pairing on Saturday’s schedule.
These are the factors at play:
An SEC and Big Ten playoff referendum
There’s no doubt the result on Saturday will eventually be used as an influential data point for the playoff when comparing the SEC and Big Ten.
The two power leagues placed seven teams in last year’s debut 12-team field and should have at least that many in this season’s bracket. After some controversy stemming from the initial model, the playoff has moved to a straight-seeding model that issues a bye to the four highest-ranked teams rather than the highest-ranked conference champions.
Should the SEC and Big Ten have multiple teams in contention for the top four spots, as expected, what happens on Saturday could be used as a tiebreaker of sorts for the playoff selection committee.
For example, consider a scenario where Michigan beats Oklahoma on the road. Should Ohio State and Georgia finish as conference champions with identical records, an Ohio State win against the Wolverines — this has actually happened before, believe it or not — could be the final piece that gives the Buckeyes the top seed and an easier matchup in the quarterfinals.
When it comes to Michigan and Oklahoma in particular, the victor could have a season-long advantage in the race for an at-large playoff berth, as long as the loser doesn’t flop in conference play.
Pressure on Brent Venables and Sherrone Moore
The pressure on Venables is obvious. After going 6-7 last year, the former Clemson defensive coordinator is one of two Oklahoma coaches in the past century to have two losing seasons.
“I’ve been incredibly disappointed that we haven’t been able to give more reason for celebrating and excitement with our end product,” Venables said. “But I’m motivated by that.”
This year’s team seems vastly improved offensively after two major offseason additions, both from Washington State: quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. Mateer had over 400 yards of total offense and four touchdowns in the 35-3 win against Illinois State to open the season.
Saturday will be the first of seven matchups for Oklahoma against teams in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll. Taking four of these games should make the Sooners a valid at-large option for the playoff; winning five would make them a virtual lock.
The Wolverines are currently slated to take on just two ranked teams in Oklahoma and Ohio State. But that could make Saturday even more important: Michigan won’t have the same opportunities to make up ground in the playoff race and would need to avoid any slipups against a series of second-tier Big Ten teams.
“It’s why you come to Michigan,” Moore said. “It’s probably why you go to Oklahoma, right? I mean, those are the type of games that you want to be a part of and games you remember. Obviously, every game is important. But yeah, playing against Oklahoma, one of the winningest programs in college football, is huge to us.”
And while his job security is more secure compared to Venables, second-year coach Sherrone Moore is still under scrutiny for his part in the sign-stealing scandal that recently drew a hefty fine and penalties from the NCAA.
He’s set to take a two-game suspension after the Oklahoma game, spanning matchups against Central Michigan and Nebraska. To lose on Saturday and then be sidelined for two weeks would open Moore to heavy criticism inside and out of Ann Arbor.
John Mateer vs. Bryce Underwood
These are two quarterbacks with dramatically different paths to Saturday night. Mateer was a lightly recruited prospect who was picked out of relative obscurity by former Washington State assistant Eric Morris, who is now the head coach at North Texas.
After serving as the backup in 2023, Mateer exploded onto the national scene last year with nearly 4,000 yards of total offense and 44 touchdowns, the most by any Bowl Subdivision quarterback.
Mateer is “a gunslinger,” said Moore.
On the other hand, Michigan freshman Bryce Underwood was the top-ranked quarterback in the past recruiting cycle. A former verbal commitment to LSU, he flipped to the Wolverines last November and then won the starting job over transfer Mikey Keene during preseason camp.
In his debut, Underwood completed 21 of 31 throws for 251 yards and a touchdown without an interception in the Wolverines’ 34-17 win against New Mexico. The Lobos probably aren’t a good barometer for what to expect against the Sooners, who gave up just 34 passing yards on 1.7 yards per attempt in the season opener.
Buy-in moment for both teams
The Sooners and Wolverines have earned plenty of off-the-radar hype as legitimate playoff contenders, though this faith is tempered by a wait-and-see approach for two teams that have yet to prove themselves against elite competition.
That makes Saturday a type of buy-in game that alters the national perception of both teams — potentially skyrocketing the winner up the rankings while knocking the loser out of the Top 25 entirely.
The hesitancy to jump on the Sooners’ bandwagon stems from the program’s thud of an SEC debut. That Michigan is currently seen as no better than the fourth-best team in the Big Ten can be attributed to Moore’s uneven first year and the lack of experience under center.
But the conversation around the Sooners and Wolverines will change after Saturday night.
The Sooners have to “focus on each other,” Mateer said. “Just stay off the phone because they’ll say a lot of good and say a lot of bad and you’ve just got to focus like it’s any week. And it’s awesome. Like, embrace how cool it is because you only get so many opportunities. But also know you’ve got to play the game.”
