All 32 NFL teams enter the 2025 season with varying expectations … but are some set too high?
Lingering injuries and offseason business that encroaches into the season are often surefire ways to derail a team.
Perhaps there’s no more pivotal figure in the league than Rams QB Matthew Stafford, and this is why.
ASHBURN, VA − The 2025 NFL regular season is underway, two of its 272 games already in the books – both involving teams, the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, which met in Super Bowl 59.
But while there’s little doubt those outfits will again be bona fide contenders leading up to Super Bowl 60, other clubs presumed to be relevant might be displaying early cracks and perhaps be especially vulnerable to a wider variance of seasonal outcomes (aside from the unpredictable catastrophic injuries that can change any organization’s trajectory). Some squads are already nicked up, while others are hoping that the business of football hasn’t infringed too far into the field of play.
One that needed most of the summer to resolve a pressing financial matter was the Washington Commanders, an NFC title game entry in January but one that couldn’t meet team captain Terry McLaurin’s contractual demands until late August. Now, McLaurin and the team are hoping he won’t become one of the holdouts – or holdins nowadays – who might be more prone to soft tissue injuries in September after missing the bulk of or all of training camp.
“(T)here’s a difference between being in shape, football shape, and then game shape, you know what I mean?” McLaurin asked rhetorically after signing a three-year extension last week that could pay him up to $97 million.
“(Y)ou go into game one, you’re like, ‘Whew, I’m winded,’ you know what I mean? And so that’s just the process of football. But I’ve done everything that the training staff and the coaching staff have asked me to do since I’ve been here. I’m going to continue to do that, and there’s a great plan in place for me to continue to ramp up so … there aren’t any setbacks.”
The Commanders and other teams rolling the dice in some capacity can only hope the same. But with regular-season openers just days away for most franchises, these six seem to run a substantial risk of experiencing what could be surprisingly poor campaigns.
Washington Commanders
While McLaurin awaited his deal, he was rehabbing a nagging ankle injury for most of the summer. Starting WR Noah Brown is on the way back from a lingering knee injury at a time when the offense is also adapting to a reimagined backfield that might wind up heavily relying on rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt following the trade of Brian Robinson Jr. to the San Francisco 49ers. And as good as second-year QB Jayden Daniels is and will be, a team with such heightened expectations could also be due for a natural regression given eight of its 12 wins in 2024 came by six or fewer points – one of those in overtime and another on a Hail Mary.
Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings
Both have capable rosters loaded with veteran talent that would seemingly fuel hopes of playoff contention in the ATL and Twin Cities. But each team’s hopes are also inextricably linked to a second-year quarterback taken in Round 1 of the 2024 draft who’s nevertheless far less experienced than his peers. The Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. got three starts as a rookie, while the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy had none after suffering a season-ending knee injury a year ago. Interestingly, neither has extensive preseason reps under his belt, either.
McCarthy, who will make his regular-season debut Monday night in Chicago, has the benefit of playing for a budding offensive mastermind in Kevin O’Connell but must also navigate what might be the league’s toughest division. Penix is surrounded by weaponry in what seems like a winnable division. Yet Atlanta has already lost RT Kaleb McGary, who protects the blind side of southpaw Penix, to a knee injury that will keep him out until 2026. Veteran QB2 Kirk Cousins is also lurking in the background.
But at least one of those teams is virtually guaranteed a decent start … given they’ll meet in Week 2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening at Atlanta on Sunday, they’ll also get an early look at the Falcons, who swept the Bucs in 2024 – albeit with Cousins in the saddle. But the perennial NFC South champions will have to navigate the early stages of the season without, arguably, their best player (LT Tristan Wirfs) and will also have to rely heavily on rookie WR Emeka Egbuka with injured Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan still several weeks away from suiting up on Sundays. After facing the Falcons, the Bucs will play four teams over a six-week stretch that won at least 10 games in 2024 – meaning they could be in serious jeopardy of falling into a deep hole by the time November arrives.
Miami Dolphins
Calendar year 2025 began with owner Stephen Ross saying he expected more from coach Mike McDaniel and GM Chris Grier coming off an 8-9 campaign. Since then, the team has lost LT Terron Armstead, S Jevon Holland, CB Jalen Ramsey and TE Jonnu Smith, among others. QB Tua Tagovailoa revealed this summer that there are still trust issues between volatile WR Tyreek Hill and the locker room. Then the team was embarrassed during joint practices at Chicago and Detroit. Finally, Jacksonville’s reserves largely had their way with Miami’s starters in the preseason finale. Woof. With six of their first eight opponents non-playoff qualifiers in 2024, maybe the Fins can work out (or mask) their issues. But a team trying to debunk a narrative that it’s soft better not waste much time, especially if it wants to save McDaniel’s job.
Los Angeles Rams
The team that most recently won the NFC West and came closest to knocking the Eagles out of the 2024 postseason could easily go 12-5, as it did when it won Super Bowl 56 nearly four years ago. It could also go 5-12, as it did the season after the Super Bowl 56 triumph. As was true in 2022, everything seemingly hinges on the health of QB Matthew Stafford, now 37 and emerging from a training camp when he barely practiced due to a balky back.
Since coming to LA in 2021, Stafford has a 34-23 regular-season record. The Rams are 3-8 without him.
“I love the Rams’ chances with a healthy Matthew Stafford. But,” said former New York Giants vice president of player personnel Marc Ross, “this is scary.
“Backs and necks (are) always super tricky and very difficult to deal with – even with younger players,” added Ross, now an NFL Network analyst. “(O)lder players, they don’t get healthier … Is it pain? Is it functionality? And that’s probably something they don’t even 100 percent know because of the difficulty in evaluating a back. … Even once he gets on the field, how much of (him) will be the Pro Bowl-level Matthew Stafford, Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford that we’ll see?”
It could be the biggest question in the league entering the 2025 season.
