Earlier this month, a handful of players showed up in Billy Napier’s office and told the Florida coach something had to change.
The losses were piling up, the coach was careening toward unemployment and players wanted change.
They told Napier the defense had to be simplified if the team had any hope of success moving forward, according to two people close to the process who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.
The defense was historically bad the previous two seasons under Napier, and was headed to those depths again after the first month of this season. Misfits in run defense, a constant loss of gap control, too many combination coverages in the secondary — and all of it was leading to multiple blown assignments and explosion plays.
To Napier’s credit, he bought in to what his players were selling.
Now here we are, three games later, and the change has been remarkable heading into Saturday’s World’s Largest Cocktail Party in Jacksonville against bitter rival and No. 2 Georgia. And maybe, just maybe, might have been the first big step toward saving Napier’s job.
“When” Napier will be fired has quietly become “if” with this recent surge of better football.
“We need to continue to take great pride in how we compete,” Napier said during his weekly press conference earlier this week. And then almost on cue, he hinted at the change of the last three weeks.
“Spending our time and energy on the things that actually can produce results, and not wasting time on anything that can’t.”
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In the three games since the players asked for change, the defense has given up a combined 56 points to Central Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky (23.6 ppg.), and an average of 298 yards a game.
Prior to the changes, Florida was giving up an average of 34 points and 500 yards a game in three Power Four games against Miami, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
In fact, had Florida (4-3) not had yet another operational mess in special teams against Tennessee that negated a field goal at the end of the first half (that’s coaching, everyone), the Gators would have three consecutive wins since the changes on defense.
That’s the backdrop heading into a rivalry game Florida hasn’t won since 2020, a game that season after season, has clearly defined just how far the Gators have fallen behind Georgia and the rest of college football’s elite.
But there’s hope on the field, even if the future still is cloudy with a group of deep pocket boosters that want to move on, and an administration preaching patience. For this season, at least.
This mini-surge in October has left Florida with the hope of more in the final month of the regular season, despite a stretch of difficult games that could also lead to Napier’s demise.
How many wins saves his job? One booster who spoke to USA TODAY Sports on the condition on anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the topic, said six wins won’t do it — but seven will. Because, if for no other reason, seven victories means Florida wins three in a brutal stretch games: No. 2 Georgia, at No. 6 Texas, No. 16 LSU, No. 18 Ole Miss, at Florida State.
Winning three of the final five games would mean winning at least twice as an underdog (Florida likely will be the underdog in every game but Florida State), and give the program momentum heading into the 2025 offseason.
But getting there must begin with avoiding another blowout to Georgia, which has won the last three games by a combined score of 119-47. That’s unacceptable for a program with everything to win big, from a wildly advantageous recruiting footprint, to financial backing among the best in the game.
Florida boosters already have pooled the money needed to pay Napier’s $26 million buyout. But interim Florida president Kent Fuchs — who hired Napier three years ago before retiring — is digging in and demanding more time to let the season play out.
He didn’t come back to right the university ship through another presidential search (after former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse retired), just to be the guy who fires Napier. In fact, he has been publicly supportive of Napier, stopping him on the field after each home game – win or lose – and giving him words of encouragement.
But all of that may not mean a thing if the Gators can’t get to seven wins.
“The mindset has shifted a little bit, I think,” Napier said. “There is a noticeable difference in the effort, the intensity, and the execution of the football.”
Months from now, we may be looking back at the players meeting with Napier as the turning point of a season and a coaching tenure. Unless, of course, Georgia does what it has done to Florida for the last three seasons.
Then “if” quickly becomes “when” once again.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
