In name, it’s the College Football Playoff.
In presentation, it’s shaping up as the Big Ten-SEC Invitational.
The crowded playoff bubble cleared a bit on Saturday. Losses by the Big 12’s Iowa State and Kansas State and the ACC’s Clemson reduced the chance for either of those conferences to qualify a second playoff team, while boosting the likelihood that the SEC and Big Ten snag four bids apiece.
The first CFP rankings will be unveiled Tuesday night.
So with that moment at hand, here’s my latest prediction for the College Football Playoff bracket. Top-four seeds would receive a first-round bye, while teams seeded Nos. 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games.
1. Oregon (Big Ten)
While other conference front-runners like Georgia and Miami continue to fend off attacks, Oregon keeps getting stronger. Unfortunately for the Ducks, an undefeated Big Ten title could set them up on a path to meet Ohio State for a third time in the CFP semifinals. Some prize, huh?
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2. Georgia (SEC)
The Bulldogs are not inevitable. They’re inconsistent, from quarterback Carson Beck to their defense. But, they’re still the best team the SEC has going. Their toughest remaining game will come Saturday at Ole Miss.
3. Miami (ACC)
Cam Ward and the Miami offense are good enough to pursue a national championship. Its defense is vulnerable enough that the Hurricanes could lose their undefeated record before the playoff, but I trust Ward to navigate Miami into the CFP.
4. Brigham Young (Big 12)
The Cougars are the safest bet in the turbulent Big 12. Interestingly, the conference benefits if BYU finishes as league’s runner-up, because that could unlock a second playoff bid. Who says the Cougars are losing, though? Not me.
5. Ohio State (at-large)
The No. 5 seed line is one of the most enviable bracket spots, and the Buckeyes would be positioned for a potential “three-match” against Oregon if they lose to the Ducks in the Big Ten championship.
6. Texas (at-large)
The Longhorns wouldn’t be a playoff lock if they lost a second game, because their schedule is softer than other SEC bubble teams. Conversely, if they run the table, they’ll position themselves as a first-round host.
7. Penn State (at-large)
The Nittany Lions will be the epitome of the expanded playoff. Their credentials are strong enough to earn a playoff bid, even if nobody truly believes they’re a frontline national championship contender.
8. Notre Dame (at-large)
The Irish’s wins against Texas A&M and Louisville give the committee permission to offer Notre Dame forgiveness for its Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois – so long as the Irish don’t lose a second game.
9. Indiana (at-large)
Losses by Iowa State, Clemson and Kansas State widened the Big Ten’s avenue to qualify four playoff teams instead of three, and the Hoosiers became a top beneficiary. Indiana’s schedule strength is squishy, but it dazzles on the eye test.
10. Tennessee (at-large)
If Ole Miss upsets Georgia, that could prove troublesome for the Vols, if they subsequently lose to Georgia on Nov. 16. Georgia beating the Rebels and Texas A&M finding a third loss would help solidify a playoff spot for Tennessee, even if it loses to Georgia.
11. LSU (at-large)
The winner of Saturday’s Alabama-LSU game will enjoy an avenue to the playoff. Both teams tout a strong schedule. A nighttime kickoff in Baton Rouge works to LSU’s advantage.
12. Boise State (Group of Five)
The Broncos would be the most dangerous of any Group of Five contender, and they’re the obvious selection as long as they win the Mountain West without suffering a second loss.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
