Ohio State, Texas, Penn State headline list of qualifiers that should be back in College Football Playoff, but list doesn’t stop there.
Georgia’s tough schedule and quarterback change casts some doubt on Bulldogs, but strength of schedule could tip scales.
Arizona State or the Big 12 field? Take the field.
They’ll be back. At least, they know they’re expected to be back.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day hadn’t even left Atlanta yet, after the Buckeyes won their first national championship in more than a decade, when he fielded his first question about next season’s expectations. Day surmised that a national championship won’t buy him much of a honeymoon with Buckeyes fans.
“Try losing the first game and see how that goes at Ohio State. We’ll see about that,” quipped Day, who regularly endures heat from Buckeyes fans despite losing just 10 games in six seasons.
Never mind losing, though, because “I think we have a great group coming back,” Day said.
No debate here.
In the four-team College Football Playoff era, teams commonly repeated as playoff qualifiers. Alabama qualified for that format in eight of 10 years, and Ohio State made that four-team bracket five times. Clemson qualified six consecutive years.
The 12-team playoff creates more margin for error and ups the chance for repeat qualifiers, especially from the Big Ten and SEC.
Which of this season’s 12 qualifiers will return to the playoff next season?
I’ll take a stab at that:
Ohio State
This season: National champion.
In or out of the playoff next season?: In.
Ohio State’s notable losses include quarterback Will Howard, both standout running backs and the backbone of the country’s No. 1 defense and its coordinator Jim Knowles. But, Day remains a recruiting machine, and talent flows in. Plus, star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith will return. Don’t expect Ohio State to be flawless against a schedule that includes Texas, Penn State, Illinois and Michigan. But, this playoff format doesn’t demand flawlessness from Ohio State, only 10 wins to make field.
Notre Dame
This season: National runner-up.
In or out next season?: In.
Notre Dame’s schedule remains favorable, offering an avenue to 10 wins, even if the roster might not be as strong. The Irish profile as the favorite in every game, including early season matchups with Miami and Texas A&M, a pair of projected Top 25 teams. A handful of defensive players will be tough to replace, but a cast of familiar faces is set to return on offense. The importance of quarterback CJ Carr recovering from an elbow injury cannot be overstated.
Penn State
This season: Semifinals.
In or out next season: In.
The NFL departure of defensive standouts like Abdul Carter and Kobe King stings, but Penn State’s offensive core remains intact, and the non-conference schedule is a breeze. Prepare for another James Franklin clinic: Losses to Ohio State and another ranked opponent, and wins against the slappies.
Texas
This season: Semifinals.
In or out next season: In.
Is Arch Manning the real deal? We won’t wait long to find out. The Longhorns open at Ohio State. A schedule that also includes games against Georgia, Florida and Texas A&M threatens Texas, but the Longhorns keep magnetizing talent, complete with the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class. I’m a believer in Manning, and he’s complemented with ample support.
Oregon
This season: Quarterfinals.
In or out next season: In.
Oregon did as well as any playoff qualifier at adding transfers to augment an already strong squad. Combine that haul with another standout recruiting class, and Dan Lanning built another good roster, even as stars like quarterback Dillon Gabriel exit. Gabriel’s backup, Dante Moore, becomes his heir. He’ll enjoy throwing to Evan Stewart and handing to transfer running back Makhi Hughes (Tulane). The schedule avoids Ohio State.
Georgia
This season: Quarterfinals.
In or out next season: In.
Georgia has been as consistently successful as any team throughout the past eight seasons, but the Bulldogs’ brutal SEC schedule – they’ll play Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida and Texas – combined with a quarterback transition gives me pause. Its schedule strength also could keep Georgia afloat at 9-3, though, tipping the scales toward playoff qualification.
Arizona State
This season: Quarterfinals.
In or out next season: Out.
As Arizona State enters a future without do-it-all running back Cam Skattebo, I’m skeptical the Sun Devils will repeat as Big 12 champs. It’s not that Arizona State shouldn’t stay strong, but the Big 12 will remain as unpredictable as any league. And with perhaps only one bid available for a 16-team league, take the field.
Boise State
This season: Quarterfinals.
In or out next season: In.
The Broncos must march on without Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, one of the most sensational running backs since Barry Sanders, but I trust Boise State and its offensive line more than the other Group of Five contenders.
Tennessee
This season: First round.
In or out next season: Out.
Tennessee failed to position enough talent around quarterback Nico Iamaleava. That showed in the Vols’ playoff loss to Ohio State, and it’ll be exposed again next season. Also, Tennessee said farewell to its star running back, top offensive linemen and best defensive lineman. With pivotal games against Alabama and Florida flipping to the road, the Vols regressing by a victory or two seems in play.
Indiana
This season: First round.
In or out next season: Out.
The Hoosiers must replace their quarterback, top running backs and key defensive pieces. Combine that with a stiffer schedule, and Indiana’s underdog story will be difficult to replicate. Staying relevant within the Big Ten will hinge on California transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
SMU
This season: First round.
In or out next season: Out.
The Mustangs benefited from one of the ACC’s most favorable schedules. That changes in 2025, with a lineup that includes Clemson, Miami and Louisville. Quarterback Kevin Jennings’ return should keep SMU in the ACC’s top half, but he’s losing his best playmakers.
Clemson
This season: First round.
In or out next season: In.
Clemson returns a bevy of production, making it an ACC front-runner. The freshmen and sophomores who helped power Clemson to the playoff will return, along with veteran quarterback Cade Klubnik. Dabo Swinney maintains his standoffish approach to transfers, but he did make some additions to the team’s intact core which gives Clemson a top-10 profile for 2025.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.
